Top Group (601689) Quarterly Review: Excellent customer structure and continuous extension of product chain
Matters: The company released the third quarter report of 2019: the first three quarters achieved operating income37.
700 million, a year -15.
5%; net profit attributable to mother 3.
400 million, -45 per year.
3%; budget benefit 0.
32 yuan, net assets 6.
Ping An’s point of view: The gross profit margin is slightly supplemented, and the R & D expense ratio remains high.
The first three quarters of 2019 achieved revenue of 37.
7 ‰, at least -15.
5% in the third quarter revenue 13.
3 ‰, at least -3.
9% in the third quarter, the passenger car industry wholesale sales growth of 6%.
Gross profit margin in the third quarter 苏州夜网论坛 was 26.
4% a year -1.
The five singles are mainly due to the decline in the industry’s prosperity and the decline in scale effects.
The third quarter sales expense ratio 8.
5%, increase by 0 every year.
5 units, of which the sales expense ratio increased slightly, and the R & D expense ratio was 6.
3%, increasing by 0 every year.
8 levels, continue to strengthen the layout of automotive electronics business.
High-quality customer structure and expected heavy volume of chassis business: The company’s major downstream customers are GM, Geely, SAIC and other high-quality brands, and the introduction of shock absorption and other advantageous products. Customers are expected to gradually expand to German, Japanese and open new growth space.
The lightweight chassis is equipped with BYD, Volvo, Tesla and other new energy products. With Tesla’s domestic production of its products, the supporting value and quantity of its bicycles are also expected to increase, expanding new sources of revenue.
The product line is expanding along the chassis, and the value of supporting bicycles is expected to continue to increase.
The company’s competitive products are shock absorbing parts + interior parts. Its future product line layout will extend to lightweight chassis, chassis electronics and other fields, increase the value of supporting bicycles, and realize import substitution in combination with advantageous independent brands.
The company has experienced high capital expenditure of 17-18 years, and the release of multi-capacity capacity will gradually enter the harvest period. According to the order production progress, the depreciation stalls will be strictly controlled for sale.
Earnings forecast and investment advice: Due to industry pressure and adjusted performance forecasts, it is expected that EPS for 2019-2021 will be 0.
66 yuan (expected 2019-2020 EPS forecast is 1 respectively.
The company benefits from deep domestic alternatives, overcomes the mature base layout of the country, and expands against the trend. It is expected to usher in 2020-2021 and maintain the “recommended” rating.
Risk reminders: 1) The passenger car market is weaker than expected, and the company ‘s downstream customers are selling less than expected, resulting in pressure on the company ‘s revenue side; 2) The raw material has risen more than expected, and the company ‘s upstream has been affected by the macro boom, trade war, and raw materialsThe company ‘s gross profit margin caused by excessive prices is under pressure. 3) The expansion of new products is less than expected. The company plans to reduce the weight of its chassis business.