Xingfa Group (600141) Annual Report 2018 Comments: Performance is greatly affected by the change in silicones Follow-up look at the price elasticity of glyphosate and silicones
Fourth-quarter results exceeded expectations: The rise in organic silicon prices affected the single-quarter net profit in the fourth quarter to zero.
$ 4.4 billion, mainly due to the decline in the price of silicones, while the company accrued zero asset impairment losses.
23ppm; the average price of organic silicon in the fourth quarter was 22,000 yuan / ton (including tax), compared with 33,000 yuan / ton in the third quarter, a decrease of 11,000 yuan / ton, and theoretically affected the company’s profit by about 2 in a single quarter.
530,000 yuan, equivalent to equity profits1.
27 trillion; Yidu Xingfa, which produces fertilizer, is still in the resetting state, with a net reduction of 32 million in 2018.
The price of THPS has fallen somewhat, and the profit contribution has decreased.
Potential incremental sources in 2019The company’s operating target for 2019 is 20 billion US dollars, an increase of 12% compared to 2018. Regardless of changes in trade income, the company’s revenue and profit increase in 2019 mainly come 上海夜网论坛 from:-: Due to the company’s technical transformation and environmental protection in the first half of 2018, product output and unit cost have a significant impact; it is expected that the company’s output will be completely normal in 2019; in addition, as the company’s acquisition of 25% of the minority shareholders’ equity in Taisheng in 2018 is completed,Fatal increase in shareholder performance;-Silicone price elasticity: Considering that the silicone capacity delivery in 2019 is mainly after the fourth quarter, the profit of silicones in the first three quarters is still worth paying attention to;-Electronic-grade fine chemical products: the company realizes electronicsDomestic production of high-grade sulfuric acid, electronic-grade phosphoric acid and phosphoric acid-based etching solutions; electronic-grade phosphoric acid is the most advanced product in the phosphorus chemical industry, and is widely used in the semiconductor industry for cleaning, etching of integrated circuits, electronic wafers, thin film liquid crystal displays and other components, andPreparation of high-purity special phosphate or high-purity organic phosphorus products; electronic grade tetramethylammonium hydroxide is basically completed;价Look elastic grid, every change in the price of 5%, respectively, affect pre-tax profit grass Gan Tang (1.
4 billion), silicone (0.
800 million), phosphate fertilizer (0.
78ppm), fine phosphate (0.
4.6 billion), phosphate rock (0.
Confirmation of the purchase price of Xingrui Silicon Materials: The transaction price of 50% equity of Xingrui Silicon Materials is confirmed to be 1,782,470,550 yuan, that is, the valuation of the silicone part is 35.
64ppm; Xingrui Silicon Materials’ net profit in the past three years was 2016-2018, 0.
6.6 billion yuan, 3.
4.6 billion yuan, 7.
02 trillion; 2018 net assets are 15 trillion; the average profit corresponding to the past three years is estimated to be 9.
6 times PE; performance commitment: Yichang Xingfa, Jin Fanda as the performance commitment party, Yichang Xingfa, Jin Fanda promised Xingrui Silicon Materials’ audited net profit after tax in 2019, 2020 and 2021, respectivelyNo less than 2.
7.9 billion, 5.
9.8 billion yuan and 4.
Estimated average profit for the next three years performance commitment is estimated to be 8.
2 times; considering the periodicity of organic silicon, Xingrui Silicon Materials’ estimates are reasonable.
The profit forecast and estimate give the company net profit for 2019-2021 is 3 respectively.
8.5 billion, 5.
1.3 billion, 5.
US $ 9.7 billion, corresponding estimates are 20 times, 15 times, and 13 times, taking into account the company’s low PB, phosphate ore, fine phosphate superior indicators, maintain the company’s buy rating.